Did Facebook help Cruz beat Trump in crucial

   Cruz seems to have cruised to victory on a sea of social media data. Ted Cruz took the first battle in the race for the Republican presidential nomination last night, winning the vital Iowa caucus with a comfortable 3 per cent lead over the favourite, Donald Trump.

Although Trump had polled ahead of Cruz in the state, his “ground game” – the organisational skills of his campaign team – was reportedly not as good as that of his rival.



Texas Senator Cruz, on the other hand, used the services of a company called Cambridge Analytica to build psychological profiles of Iowan voters, sucking up data from Facebook profiles. It’s well known that what you like on Facebook gives away your personality – the Cruz campaign was able to home in on his likely supporters through the social network, and motivate them to get out in the real world and vote.

Carl Miller, research director of the Centre for the Analysis of Social Media at UK think tank Demos, says it’s hard to know exactly what analyses the US campaigns are using, because they keep their techniques secret, a potential competitive advantage.

“Campaigns are like wars, and trying to use the digital side is definitely an edge,” Miller says. “I’d be astonished if all the candidates weren’t’ doing quite sophisticated data analytics.”

Targeted attack
For example, high earners are likely to receive lots of messages about tax, while older voter in rural areas will probably be targeted with family-values messaging, says Miller.

Iowa is an important state because it is the first to go to the polls, and it gives the first real taste of what voters think of the candidates. The media pays huge attention to the results – successful presidential candidates almost always win Iowa or New Hampshire.

In an interview with The Guardian in December, Cruz said that his campaign “is very much the Obama model – a data-driven, grassroots-driven campaign – and it is a reason why our campaign is steadily gathering strength”.

“That’s what the silent rumble of algorithms under each campaign is seeking to do,” says Miller, “learn much more about the voters that they need to reach.”

The first primaries are in New Hampshire on 9 February. Trump maintains a healthy lead in polling over all other Republican candidates. In the race for the Democrat nomination, Bernie Sanders holds a strong lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.