In games, humans are hopelessly predictable. Spot this hidden behaviour and you can crush puny-minded opponents in everything from the lottery to Rock, Paper, Scissors. Although we can never outwit the weather or natural disasters, there are ways to master those other seemingly unpredictable entities that control much of your life – other humans.
As William Poundstone writes in his new book How to Predict the Unpredictable, if you understand the quirks of human behaviour you can begin to see meaning in our madness, and use that knowledge to our advantage. It boils down to how human beings find it fiendishly difficult to be random.
If you know how to spot this behaviour – and be more random yourself – you’ll soon crush your opponents in the following games: Rock, Paper, Scissors This playground game may seem trivial, but it has helped to decide big business deals: in 2005 a Japanese electronics firm asked the auctioneers Christies and Sotheby’s to fight it out for the chance to sell its $20m art collection.
Poundstone points out that men are most likely to throw the more “macho” choice of a rock – while scissors are least popular with both men and women. For these reasons, you are safest choosing paper – you’ll either win or draw. Another cunning trick is to say your choice out loud; your opponent will think you are bluffing and therefore choose a less wise option.
Although we can never outwit the weather or natural disasters, there are ways to master those other seemingly unpredictable entities that control much of your life – other humans.
As William Poundstone writes in his new book How to Predict the Unpredictable, if you understand the quirks of human behaviour you can begin to see meaning in our madness, and use that knowledge to our advantage. It boils down to how human beings find it fiendishly difficult to be random.
If you know how to spot this behaviour – and be more random yourself – you’ll soon crush your opponents in the following games: Rock, Paper, Scissors This playground game may seem trivial, but it has helped to decide big business deals: in 2005 a Japanese electronics firm asked the auctioneers Christies and Sotheby’s to fight it out for the chance to sell its $20m art collection.
Poundstone points out that men are most likely to throw the more “macho” choice of a rock – while scissors are least popular with both men and women. For these reasons, you are safest choosing paper – you’ll either win or draw. Another cunning trick is to say your choice out loud; your opponent will think you are bluffing and therefore choose a less wise option.
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