29 January 2014

Mamphela Ramphele may not be the electoral elixir needed to beat the ANC

It is a South African political match made in heaven: a revered black academic, international activist and former freedom fighter – Dr Mamphela Ramphele - joins the rising, but still largely white, main opposition party in South Africa to lead it in polls this year.
Many believe this is a game-changer of note. Finally, they say, the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) has a credible, potent black candidate to take on the dominance of the governing, but increasingly embattled, African National Congress of Nelson Mandela.
There is another a bittersweet angle to the story: the relationship between Ramphele and the DA's current leader, Helen Zille, who is giving up the presidential candidacy, dates back to the death of Ramphele's former partner, the Black Consciousness activist Steve Biko. Zille wrote the article that exposed how Biko was murdered by the apartheid regime police in 1977 while under tortured.
In a country where the ANC won 65.9%% of the vote in the fourth democratic elections in 2009, Ramphele's move on Tuesday was hailed by many as the electoral elixir that an anaemic opposition needs to reduce the ANC's majority.
Everything, on the surface at least, worked. The reality, however, is somewhat different.
Ramphele was in deep negotiations with the DA about a year and half ago. She was offered the presidency, but turned it down when the party would not dismantle itself and build a new entity.
She then started Agang (meaning "Build"), a "political platform" which she registered to contest elections this year. It was greeted with much fanfare, hailed as a tipping point in South African politics, and seemed to rattle the ANC and the existing opposition.
Building a political party is a tough business, though, and despite Ramphele being a media darling there was no visible or verifiable support on the ground. This month it emerged that the party had run out of cash, staff had not been paid in December and several senior co-founders had left. Its media profile had become virtually non-existent.
Agang had failed to take off. And there lies the rub: Ramphele is no longer as potent a tool as she was a year ago. Then – after a glittering career in which she was a student freedom fighter, medical doctor, banished and harassed by the apartheid government only to become a World Bank managing director and principal of the University of Cape Town – she was a real catch.
In South Africa's intellectual space she was considered a giant. Her opinion pieces are acerbic, rigorous, intellectually curious and evocative of a South Africa that Nelson Mandela and others fought for.
Her one year at the helm of Agang, though, have shown that she cannot handle life in the grubby world of politics. The Ramphele who became the DA's presidential candidate on Tuesday is a slightly diminished figure, not the glittering political Superwoman of a year ago.
By all accounts, the ANC will lose some support in the elections due in about four months. The latest Ipsos Markinor poll puts its ratings at a mere 53% compared with its 66% showing in 2009 (when the DA won less than 17%), and Nomura's Peter Attard Montalto predicts that it will poll as low as 56%.
Will Ramphele's move to the DA help the party attract the elusive "black vote"? The key factor for the DA in fighting to attract Ramphele was that it hopes to shed its image as a white party – despite the fact that it has several dynamic, young leaders who have a higher profile than Ramphele.
The jury is still out over whether any constituency she may have built up in the past 12 months will move with her to the DA. After all, many who joined her were appalled by the ANC's failures over the past 20 years but could not quite bring themselves to join a DA that is still perceived as white.
Ramphele's move is still significant. A small but growing group of leaders who stood up against apartheid like her are beginning to find homes outside the traditional liberation organisations such as the ANC. There is even a move away from the ANC, glacial as that may be. Ramphele's declaration adds to this movement.
The rewards may not be hugely visible in this election, but these changes will accelerate in the next two elections. Indeed, it may well be that in 2024 we may see a credible and potent challenge to the ANC.
Ramphele's move on Tuesday makes this more likely, but that is the only level at which it can be considered a game-changer.

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